Long Term Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Plan for the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission Water Enterprise - Phase I

Climate change, water quality, regulatory changes, growth, and economic cycles are among the many factors that create uncertainty and vulnerability for water systems and impact their ability to meet the needs of their communities. Therefore, utilities must consider these factors when planning for the future. This project developed a long-term vulnerability assessment (LTVA) of the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission’s Regional Water System (RWS). The goal of the LTVA is to help quantitatively and qualitatively assess to what extent climate change will be a threat to the RWS in comparison to, or in combination with, other external drivers of change over the next 50 years. This research provides a detailed case study of a decision scaling methodology, providing a systematic approach for addressing climate change concerns while also incorporating non-climate considerations. The findings will serve as the basis for future work to explore adaptation pathways and identify investments and long-term options to increase resilience of the RWS infrastructure. Research partner: San Francisco Public Utilities Commission. Published in 2021.

Update January 2025: In a recent modeling effort, an error in the San Francisco Water System Model code was found. Upon investigation, the modeling team determined that this error did not affect the LTVA results, except for scenarios involving significant increases in instream-flow requirements (IFR). Please refer to the Errata, posted below as a Project Paper, for more details.