Water Demand: Improving the Effectiveness of Forecasts and Management

Water utilities employ demand forecasting at different time scales and for different purposes. Weekly demand forecasts are used for distribution system operations; forecasts a few years into the future are used for budgeting, revenue projections, and financial planning; and forecasts of 20–40 years are used for capital improvement or master planning for infrastructure and water supply. Many factors influence water demand, such as population, demographics, climate, weather, employment, economy, water price, water efficiency technology, and demand management programs. This Research Area was started in 2012 because many water utilities noticed that assumed levels of water use per customer were changing and that previous long-term water demand forecasts had usually overestimated current demand.

 

Research Area Objectives

1. Explore the methods and effectiveness of past and current water demand forecasting activities.
2. Explore the role of uncertainty within water demand forecasting methods and how knowledge of such uncertainty can be incorporated into planning activities.
3. Explore at a greater level of detail the current and possible future structure of and factors affecting water demand within all sectors of water use.

 

Research Area Project Timeline and Value

Water Demand Forecasting in Uncertain Times: Isolating the Effects of the Great Recession

• Timeline: 2013–2016
• Total Project Value: $543,921
• Research Area Objectives: Forecast Approaches, Demand Factors and Sectors

Integrating Water Use From Efficient Technology and New Building Codes into Demand Forecasting

• Timeline: 2016–2018
• Total Project Value: $334,287
• Research Area Objectives: Demand Factors and Sectors

Short-Term Water Demand Forecasting

• Timeline: 2014–2017
• Total Project Value: $385,344
• Research Area Objectives: Forecast Approaches

Uncertainty in Long-Term Water Demand Forecasting

• Timeline: 2014–2016
• Total Project Value: $157,631
• Research Area Objectives: Uncertainty and Planning

Water Use in the Multi-Family Housing Sector

• Timeline: 2015–2017
• Total Project Value: $417,334
• Research Area Objectives: Demand Factors and Sectors

Developing Water Use Metrics and Class Characterization for Categories in the CII Sector

• Timeline: 2016–2019
• Total Project Value: $400,613
• Research Area Objectives: Forecast Approaches

Long Term Water Demand Forecasting Practices for Water Resources and Infrastructure Planning

• Timeline: 2016–2018
• Total Project Value: $383,759
• Research Area Objectives: Forecast Approaches

Future Project:Methods of Planning with Uncertainty in Demand Forecasts

• Timeline: 2017–2018
• Total Project Value: TBD
• Research Area Objectives: Forecast Approaches

Future Project: Integration of Demand Forecasting Activities to Support Multiple Aspects of Utility Management

• Timeline: 2018–2019
• Total Project Value: TBD
• Research Area Objectives: Uncertainty and Planning

Cumulative Value of Research Area Research (to date): $2,622,889

 

Projects Funded Outside of the Research Area Program that meets a Research Area Objective

Urban Water Demand Roundtable

• Year Completed: 2012
• Funding Program: EO
• RA Objectives: Forecast Approaches, Uncertainty and Planning, Demand Factors and Sectors

Analysis of Changes in Water Use Under Regional Climate Change Scenarios

• Year Completed: 2013
• Funding Program: RAC
• RA Objectives: Uncertainty and Planning, Demand Factors and Sectors

Urban Water Demand Roundtable

• Year Completed: 2013
• Funding Program: EO
• RA Objectives: Forecast Approaches, Uncertainty and Planning, Demand Factors and Sectors

Methodology for Evaluating Water Use in Commercial, Institutional, and Industrial Sectors

• Year Completed: 2015
• Funding Program: RAC
• RA Objectives: Forecast Approaches, Demand Factors and Sectors

Drought Management in a Changing Climate: Using Cost Benefit Analyses

• Year Completed: 2015
• Funding Program: NOAA Grant
• RA Objectives: Uncertainty and Planning

Urban Water Demand Roundtable

• Year Completed: 2015
• Funding Program: EO
• RA Objectives: Forecast Approaches, Uncertainty and Planning, Demand Factors and Sectors

Smart Irrigation Controller Demonstration and Evaluation in Orange County, Florida

• Year Completed: 2016
• Funding Program: TC
• RA Objectives: Demand Factors and Sectors

Residential End Uses of Water, Version 2

• Year Completed: 2016
• Funding Program: RAC
• RA Objectives: Forecast Approaches, Demand Factors and Sectors

Evaluation of Customer Information and Data Processing Needs for Water Utility Planning and Management

• Year Completed: 2016
• Funding Program: TC
• RA Objectives: Demand Factors and Sectors

Integration of Behavioral Changes into Demand Forecasting and Water Efficiency Practices

• Year Completed: 2016
• Funding Program: Partnership (UKWIR)
• RA Objectives: Demand Factors and Sectors

Managing Drought: Learning from Australia

• Year Completed: 2016
• Funding Program: Partnership (UKWIR)
• RA Objectives: Uncertainty and Planning

Urban Landscape Water Use Research

• Year Completed: 2017
• Funding Program: EO
• RA Objectives: Demand Factors and Sectors

Assessing Water Demand Patterns to Improve Sizing of Water Meters and Service Lines

• Year Completed: 2018
• Funding Program: TC
• RA Objectives: Uncertainty and Planning

 

Key

EO = Emerging Opportunities

RAC = Research Area Council

TC = Tailored Collaboration